Poisoned market needs cure

By John Adams

For the AJC

One of the powerful drags on the real estate recovery is the large number of vacant bank-owned homes in the metro Atlanta area. While this is a serious problem all over the United States, it is especially severe here for two reasons:

● For much of the past decade, the Atlanta area has led the nation in housing growth, so it is only natural to expect that we would have more than our share of mortgage defaults. Remember that home loans are most vulnerable to problems in the first couple of years after origination while the borrower is getting used to the new payment; and

● For much of that same decade, Atlanta was a target for mortgage fraud, both organized and informal. It wasn’t until the U.S. Attorney became seriously involved that the extent of this fraud was even realized, much less checked.

Both of these factors fueled the current inventory of vacant homes poisoning our local market.

When one of these homes sells to an investor for a below-wholesale price, it immediately has a chilling effect on the appraised value of all the homes within a mile. And there are finally enough of these homes selling to impact the entire market at all pricing levels.

So I was mightily heartened recently when I saw this quote from a mortgage industry commentator on Bankrate.com, that well-respected barometer of interest rates. He said we could “look for lots of government incentives for mortgage refinancing and for investors to absorb the millions of vacant homes across America.”

Believing that since he was an “expert,” he must have a direct phone line to Ben Bernanke or, at the very least, to Barack Obama, I called him in California. I inquired if he had any evidence whatsoever that any new programs were, in fact, on the way or even under consideration anywhere. The phone line went silent.

“No,” he replied, “but I know Washington and I know it’s going to happen.”

He went on to describe the political driver for such programs as a need to shore up city tax bases in a time of great need. He concluded that his prediction must be right because it’s “the only thing that can work.”

After I hung up, I found myself replying “You may be right, but no one in Washington seems to be listening.”

John Adams is a broker and investor. He answers real estate questions on radio station WGKA (920am) every Saturday at noon. For more real estate information or to make a comment, visit www.money99.com.